The canary has already sung
Wall Street repriced insurance distribution in one day.
10.7%One-week drop in the S&P 500 Insurance Brokers index after AI quoting apps launched inside ChatGPT, February 2026.
12%Willis Towers Watson's fall on February 9 alone — its worst day since 2008.
19%Fewer agency acquisitions in 2026 so far than last year. Fewer deals means pickier acquirers.
PwC said it plainly in June: if public broker multiples stay depressed, a private-market pricing reset is likely. Acquirers aren't waiting to find out.
Sources: Insurance Journal and S&P Global Market Intelligence (Feb 2026); OPTIS Partners Q3 2026 M&A report; PwC, Insurance Deals 2026 Midyear Outlook.